Coupled Monte Carlo simulation and Copula theory for uncertainty analysis of multiphase flow simulation models

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Simulation-optimization techniques are effective in identifying an optimal remediation strategy. Simulation models with uncertainty, primarily in the...     

Stand-alone wind power system with battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage

This paper presents a stand-alone wind power system with battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage. A stand-alone wind power system mainly consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, hybrid energy storage devices based on a vanadium redox flow battery and a supercapacitor, an AC/DC converter, two bidirectional DC/DC converters, a DC/AC converter and a variable load. Several control strategies for the stand-alone wind power system are involved such as a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, a vanadium redox flow battery charge/discharge control and a supercapacitor charge/discharge control. The proposed MPPT control combines a sliding mode control with an extreme search control to capture maximum wind energy. This strategy avoids the necessity of measuring wind velocity, obtaining models or parameters of the wind turbine and calculating the differentials of the power generated from the wind power system and from the speed of the generator. The battery charge/discharge control maintains a constant DC bus voltage. When the battery charging/discharging current reaches the setting threshold, the charge/discharge control of the supercapacitor is triggered to limit the charging/discharging current of the battery. The simulation results show that the proposed method can rapidly respond to variations in wind velocity and load power.     

生态工程建设背景下贵州高原的植被变化及影响因素分析

基于MODIS-NDVI和气象数据，运用趋势分析、偏相关分析和残差分析等方法，对生态工程建设背景下贵州高原的植被变化及影响因素进行分析，并定量探讨气候因素与人类活动对植被变化的影响。结果表明：(1)2000~2016年期间，贵州高原植被NDVI在空间上呈东高西低的分布特征，高值分布于野生动植物及自然保护区等，低值分布于湿地保护工程区。NDVI总体呈上升趋势，湿地保护工程区、退耕还林工程区等植被覆盖上升速率较快，野生动植物及自然保护区呈略微的下降趋势。(2)植被改善区域(83.74%)分布于研究区边缘及西北部，退化区域(16.26%)分布于研究区中部和东南部，其中退耕还林还草工程区植被改善最为明显，野生动植物保护及自然保护区和速生丰产工程区改善效果较差。(3)从气侯因素分析来看，气温和降水在总体上与NDVI均呈正相关，气温对贵州高原植被生长的影响大于降水。(4) 从人类活动分析来看，人类活动对植被的建设作用强于破坏作用，人类活动正作用（76.68%）主要分布于西北部，负作用（23.32%）集中分布于东南部。植被覆盖增加是气候因素和人类活动共同作用的结果，人类活动对植被的贡献率为75.53%，气候因素为24.47%。     

近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征

基于洞庭湖流域84个气象站点1962~2013年的逐日气象资料,利用综合干旱指数(CI)对洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时间和空间特征进行分析。结果表明:在过去52 a,区域性干旱强度较强的时段以夏季、秋季、夏秋和秋冬时节为主;区域干旱强度在春季、夏季、夏秋、冬季呈上升趋势;秋冬时节和年干旱强度变化不明显;春夏时节、夏秋时节、秋冬时节和冬春时节的平均干旱强度比春、夏、秋、冬单个季节的平均干旱强度大。小波分析表明,区域干旱强度的周期以10a为主周期,5 a和22 a为次周期。近52 a来,历年干旱站次比主要集中于10%~30%之间,多表现为区域性干旱,以夏季和秋季的干旱范围较大;干旱频率高发时期主要为夏季、夏秋时节和秋季。干旱频率高发地主要以流域的南部山地和北部的洞庭湖平原为主,西北部的山地发生干旱相对较少,衡邵盆地随季节变化干旱频率易发生高低值转换。     

SGA对垃圾焚烧飞灰中重金属的固化性能研究

根据EPA1311、HJ／T299—2007、HJ／T300—2007和HJ557—2009等国内外不同标准，研究了深圳某垃圾焚烧发电厂垃圾焚烧飞灰的浸出毒性，探讨了六硫代胍基甲酸（sixthioguanidineacid，SGA）、二甲基二硫代氨基甲酸盐（sodiumdimethyldithiocarbamate，SDD）和Ca（OH）2浓度对垃圾焚烧飞灰中重金属的固定性能的影响。研究结果表明，随着浸提液pH的降低，该厂焚烧飞灰中大部分金属元素的浸出量增大，焚烧飞灰浸出液中的cd、Ni、Ph和zn浓度分别超过国家危险废物鉴别标准（GB5085．3—2007）规定值的4．75倍、1．47倍、6．72倍和2．20倍，属于危险废弃物，必须进行稳定化处理。当固化剂SGA加入量为0．1mol／kg时，稳定化后的重金属浸出浓度已经低于危险废物鉴别标准，且对Cd、Cr、Cu和Pb的固化性能优于SDD和Ca（OH）2；当固化剂SGA、SDD和Ca（OH）2加入量为0．5mol／kg时，稳定化后的焚烧飞灰重金属浸出浓度均低于国家危险废物鉴别标准（GB5085．3-2007）中的规定值。与SDD和Ca（OH）：相比，SGA对垃圾焚烧飞灰中重金属的固化处理更具有优势。     

Sustainable forest management in a mountain region in the Central Western Carpathians,northeastern Slovakia: the role of climate change

European forestry is facing many challenges, including the need to adapt to climate change and an unprecedented increase in forest damage. We investigated these challenges in a Norway spruce-dominated mountain region in Central Europe. We used the model Sibyla to explore forest biomass production to the year 2100 under climate change and under two alternative management systems: the currently applied management (CM), which strives to actively improve the forest’s adaptive capacity, and no management (NM) as a reference. Because biodiversity is thought to have mostly positive effects on the adaptive capacity of forests and on the quality of ecosystem services, we explored how climate change and management affect indicators of biodiversity. We found a differential response across the elevation-climatic gradient, including a drought-induced decrease in biomass production over large areas. With CM, the support of non-spruce species and the projected improvement of their growth increased tree species diversity. The promotion of species with higher survival rates led to a decrease in forest damage relative to both the present conditions and NM. NM preserved the high density of over-matured spruce trees, which caused forest damage to increase. An abundance of dead wood and large standing trees, which can increase biodiversity, increased with NM. Our results suggest that commercial spruce forests, which are not actively adapted to climate change, tend to preserve their monospecific composition at a cost of increased forest damage. The persisting high rates of damage along with the adverse effects of climate change make the prospects of such forests uncertain.     

Multivariate characterization of elements accumulated in Wolfiporia extensa mushroom from Yunnan province of China

ABSTRACT

Dried sclerotia of Wolfiporia extensa have been used as medicine in Asia from Eastern Han Dynasty, and also used as traditional snack called “fulingjiabing” in Beijing, China. In this paper, 18 macro and trace elements (Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Li, Mn, Ni, Pb, Rb, Se, Sr, V, and Zn) in both flesh and peel of Wolfiporia extensa from seven sites of Yunnan province in China were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. The average recovery rates of certified reference materials for GBW10015 (spinach leaves) ranged from 90.5 to 113%, for GBW10028 (citrus leaves) from 92.8 to 106%, and for GBW07603 (bush branch and leaves) from 83.3 to 114.6%. Generally speaking, the concentration of all elements determined was at common level. The results of this survey indicate that mineral compositions in peel were higher than in flesh. In peel, the contents of investigated trace metals in mushroom samples were found to be in the range of 1,660–13,400 µg·g^?1 dry matter (dm) for Fe and 29.6–710 µg·g^?1 dm for Mn. The mean contents of Cr, Cu, Rb, V, and Zn in peel were between 10 and 20 µg·g^?1 dm, followed by As, Co, Li, Ni, Pb, Se, and Sr with mean contents between 1 and 10 µg·g^?1 dm, while Ag, Cd, and Cs had mean contents of <1 µg·g^?1 dm. In flesh, the concentration of Fe was in the range of 54–900 µg·g^?1 dm, and it was 1.5–49 µg·g^?1 dm for Mn, followed by Ba, Cu, Rb, and Zn in the range of 1 to 10 µg·g^?1 dm, while for Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cs, Li, Ni, Pb, Se, Sr, and V it was <1 µg·g^?1 dm. The concentration of toxic elements, such as As, Cd, and Pb, in both flesh and peel was below the permissible limits of World Health Organization. However, As and Pb contents in peel were higher than the limits permitted in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. The results of principal component analysis showed that the flesh of Wolfiporia extensa from all the seven sites of the Yunnan province tend to cluster together, most probably because the origin of mineral elements in both flesh and peel is wood substrate (old and dead pine trees).     

农药环境风险评估中常用的计算毒理学模型软件

农药的大量使用为我国带来了严重的环境和健康问题,仅依靠传统生物测试和环境监测的方法已经不能满足农药风险评估的需要。利用计算毒理学模型,可以实现农药的高通量风险评估。本文主要介绍了农药环境风险评估中常用免费的EPI Suite、QSAR Toolbox和PBT Profiler等定量结构-活性关系(Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship,QSAR)模型软件和SCIGROW、PRZM-GW、China-PEARL和EQC等环境多介质模型软件,以期能为农药的风险评估和科学管理提供参考。